Cowboys First Round Draft Predictions

Dallas Cowboys First Round Draft Analysis

By Zach Wolchuk

As promised in my previous article, I plan on giving a list of defensive line candidates I see as good fits for your Dallas Cowboys. Since the draft is now just nine days away I will also give a list of other potential players that could be of good value and or fill a need for the boys with pick 16.

Let's start with the defensive line. As stated in my previous article this will be a new look front four come training camp. George Selvie will be the only returning starter from last season. Yes, the team did re-sign veteran end Anthony Spencer this past weekend, however he barely saw the field last season due too his knee injury which potentially could still give him problems. The addition of Henry Melton was a good step in the right direction for the team. Although, Melton is essentially playing on a one year prove it deal that had a three year option the club can pick up following the season. The predicted starting front four in my personal opinion for training camp would be Selvie, Hayden, Melton, and Spencer. Both Spencer and Selvie have played right defensive end during their time with the Cowboys. So the need for a true left side end is a position the team should look too fill in this draft.

My number one option at 16 for Dallas would be Pitt defensive tackle Aaron Donald. When looking at film from this young man all you see of him living in opponents backfields. He has a quick twitch, good instincts, and a general nose for the football. He is the prototype 3 technique in a Rod Marinelli defense in my opinion. Donald did nothing but stand out anytime you watched a Pitt Panther football game last fall. This guy was well on my radar before he turned heads at the NFL scouting combine. His numbers were off the charts and are quickly becoming legendary for a defensive tackle. Donald posted a 4.68 40 yard dash (best at combine), 35 reps on the bench press (best at combine), 7.11 3 cone drill (best at combine), and a 4.39 20 yard shuttle. As impressive as these numbers are, I have never been one too elevate a prospect based on a tremendous work out. If the players looks good on film that is what truly counts. In this case Donald was a player who plays outstanding on tape and then combine that with a jaw dropping workout.

Odds are Aaron Donlad will be gone by the time the Cowboys are on the clock come May 8. Another player I like is Anthony Barr from UCLA. This guy is a converted running back. Only played outside linebacker the last two seasons in Jim Mora's 3-4 defensive scheme. Barr shows natural pass rush skills and a knack for getting too the quarterback. Other than Clowney he to me is the best pass natural pass rusher in this class. He makes “Wow” plays. A lot can be said about how raw he is and some worry about his upper body strength and hand play. In my opinion this guy just makes plays. I believe Rod Marinelli would have a field day with this guys ability. It is said that the Cowboys would have him play down as most likely the left defensive end in this scheme. This would work because the left side is asked too support less in run support, however, I think with time and coaching Barr can become one of the elite defensive players in the NFL. Regardless of position, maybe he is better suited as a 3-4 OLB, but I would not pass on him at 16. Getting too the quarterback is too important in today's NFL.

At defensive end two players are being discussed as first round candidates at the position. That being Kony Ealy of Mizzou and Dee Ford from Auburn. Personally I am not high on Ealy. If you look at him physically he is long and presents all the athletical qualities you want from an end in today's league. He goes in line with the JPP and Aldon Smith mold of long and athletic ends or converted outside linebackers. To me his production does not match the athleticism, I would prefer too take his counterpart at Mizzou Michael Sam who has made news for his sexuality more so than his play on the field. I think Sam has a place at least as a third down pass rusher and a ceiling comparable to a Trent Cole. He could be steal in later rounds. 

While I do not like Ealy, I do very much like Dee Ford. He was the one player in the national championship game for Auburn on the defensive end that really caught my eye. Some say he may not be an all around player, but I think he has potential and could arguably be the next best end too Clowney in the class. Taking him at 16 could be too high for the Cowboys, but if the team trades down, his name could be up for consideration. 

Other potential first round options along the defensive line are Timmy Jernigan from Florida State, Louis Nix from Notre Dame, and RaShede Hagemen from Minnesota. The latter two are more one technique in the cowboys defense. Big bodies who can stop the run yet still collapse the interior of the pocket and get push on the quarterback. Both of which would improve the interior defensive line of the Cowboys. Jernigan presents some interesting versatility. I think he can play either the three technique because of his quickness and motor, or play the one technique because of his size and strength. The ability too move him around could be just what the doctor ordered for Dallas. Not to mention he led the Noles' in tackles in their national championship win over Auburn.

The Dallas Cowboys have many holes other than just along the defensive line. This team has needed a true safety ever since Darren Woodson retired. I like Barry Church at strong safety, I think he has proven to be a reliable tackler, although he has shown some struggles when covering tight ends. This club really needs a rangy center fielder. A true ball hawk if you will. The best guy in this years class to me is Ha-Ha Clinton Dix from Alabaman. This guy can cover sideline too sideline and also has the physical tools too lay the wood on guys. He would immediatly improve a cowboys secondary that seemed too really lose it's confidence last season.

Other safety options in round one are Calvin Pryor of Louisville and even Jimmie Ward of Nothern Illinois. Ward is the only safety of the top three to visit the Cowboys this off season. A personal under the radar favorite of mine is another Florida State Seminole Lamarcus Joyner. Joyner has played Safety, outside corner, and slot corner for the Noles' during his collegiate career. He has game speed and flies around like no other safety in my opinion from this class on the back end. Like his teammate Jernigan, his versatility is something that would intrigue if I were the Cowboys.

I really do not want the Cowboys taking a wide receiver round one in this years draft. This class is very deep at the position and in my opinion defensive line, safety, linebacker, and even taking an offensive lineman such as Notre Dames' Zack Martin round one would be the way to go. Martin has experience playing across the offensive line, he was also a captain and MVP for Notre Dame at their bowl game this past season. How many offensive lineman do you know with that kind of resume. Martin could come in at start guard for Dallas and also kick out and play right tackle if Doug Free departs next season in free agency. Drafting Martin would solidify the offensive line and make it a strength for the team.

Later round players that could be targets for Dallas along the defensive line are Domique Easley from Florida, Will Sutton from Arizona State, Stephon Tuitt from Notre Dame, Demarcus Lawrence from Boise State, Scott Crichton from Oregon State, Marcus Smith from Louisville, and Jackson Jeffcoat from Texas. Of these players Easley in my opinion has the most talent, but is also coming off a knee injury. All are solid options and players I like anywhere from rounds 2-4.

As the draft quickly approaches the Cowboys remain one of the wild cards of the first round. The team could be in a prime trading spot if one of the top quarterbacks fall. Or if Johnny “Football” Manziel fell to 16 I have hunch he may just be box office enough that Jerry pounces. Will Dallas move up for a player in covets? Or will they trade down and acquire more picks in a deep draft? Or just stay put and see how the board falls and take the best player available. We shall find out soon enough.

Make sure and keep checking our page on BlogTalk for our Nosebleed Seats NFL mock draft special coming very soon.

The Theory of Superstar Teams in the NBA

Does stacking up a team with numerous "superstars" equate to a championship team?
By Jonathan Underhill

The current trend in the NBA seems to revolve around the theory of superstar-stacked teams. Teams look at the quick-fix successes of the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. Boston was the start of multiple superstar signings with Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. The team immediately went from mediocrity to contenders. Miami won the NBA finals in ’05-’06, but over the next four season they had a record of 149-179 before signing LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Since then, history speaks for itself- going to the Finals in each of the following three seasons and winning the last two. It’s hard to question this theory given those numbers, but currently the two teams atop of the East and West aren’t advocates of the theory, instead buying into the theory of team basketball. The Pacers and Spurs do have their fair share of stars but neither has stacked up via free agency with max-contract players. Their teams are more complete from top to bottom. One exceptional element of Indiana and San Antonio’s success is the often forgotten about aspect of basketball- Defense. Last season, Miami was brought to the brink of elimination against Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals followed by San Antonio taking Miami to seven games in the Finals. Supporters of “superstar” teams will point out Miami winning those games, but history can show San Antonio’s success and lets not forget Miami lost in 2011 to the Dallas Mavericks, who just so happen to be pro-team basketball. So how valuable are individual players to their team? Is Miami’s success just a coincidence? Or is this the future of the NBA? Lets take a closer look.

The NBA is much more superstar driven then any of the other 4 major American sports. But rightfully so, there is only five players for each team on the court at any given time, and only 12 on the each roster. Thus, each individual player has more of an impact on the overall game, so that would not be the reason the NBA is considered superstar driven. This label the NBA has earned comes from the large gap between the great players and the average players. The distinction between superstars and the rest of NBA players is usually very apparent. Great players are obviously vital to a teams success but is having two, or even three, of these types of players worth leaving the other nine to ten roster spots with below average players? Looking back at the previous NBA champions there is skewed data. Since 1999 there have been 15 NBA champions, won by only six different teams.

Championships (Appearances)
1) Lakers- 5 (7)
2) Spurs- 4 (5)
3) Heat- 3 (4)
4) Pistons- 1 (2)
5) Celtics- 1 (2)
6) Mavericks- 1 (2)

Lets analyze these championship teams and see if they were the product of superstar driven rosters or the product of teamwork and depth. The Lakers first three championships (’00-’02) were clearly all about the Shaq and Kobe show, clearly making them a superstar driven team. But conversely, their other two championships (’09 & ’10) were with an almost entire different roster excluding Kobe Bryant. This roster included Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Trevor Ariza (traded for Ron Artest in ’10), Andrew Bynum, etc. This team, while still centered around Kobe, showed plenty of depth which was ultimately the reason for their success. San Antonio has been competing for championships nearly every year since 1999. They won it all in ’99, ’03, ’05, and ’07 and also made an appearance, losing to the Heat, in ’13. They also have won 62 games this season which is the most by any team since the Mavericks won 67 games in the ’06-’07 season. What makes the Spurs so great is their ability to get quality players for value and having them improve around existing pieces. Duncan and Parker are NBA stars but the championships are from the depth of the rest of the roster as well. The Pistons went to the championship in back-to-back years, winning it in ’04. They had a starting roster that all made the all-star team that year. Talk about a complete team. The ’06 Heat had a Dwayne Wade, Shaq, a bunch of oldies, and a bunch of nobodies. The ’12 and ’13 Heat was the product of LeBron James and Chris Bosh deciding to take their talents to South Beach together to team up with Dwayne Wade. The Celtics ’08 roster included Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett, or the original “Big 3.” Three great players who had never won a championship decided to team up towards the end of their careers to win the big prize. And last but not least, the Dallas Mavericks ’11 team has been the only roster able to beat a LeBron-led Heat team in a 7-game series. Dirk Nowitzki was the staple piece of a roster that also included Jason Kidd, Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion and Jason Terry. Given that information there is no conclusive evidence that either theory is better than the other. With the logic I’m using to separate the different philosophies used by these championship-winning teams, the outcome is nearly equally divided. The final tally has eight on the “team-basketball theory” side and seven on the “superstar-stacked theory” side.

There are numerous teams currently that have put together their own “superstar teams.” We’ve seen the Brooklyn Nets shell out major money to bring in the likes of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and many more. While it’s impossible to call this a failure since the playoffs have yet to begin, the teams’ future is looking dark. They are in cap hell and hobbled out the gate to start the season, currently 5th in the East after the team turned it around after the all-star break. We will see what the post-season brings for Brooklyn but to this point, even Brooklyn fans must agree, they’ve been a disappointment. Also in the East, the Detroit Pistons shed big bucks last offseason to acquire Brandon Jennings and Josh Smith. It was a odd decision by the front office to lock this team up financially for the fore seeable future and the moves didn’t equate to wins regardless. They are out of the playoff picture and are currently sitting at 29-52 with one game left. On the other hand, the Rockets and Clippers are two teams in the West that would beg to differ about how well the “superstar theory” works. The Clippers are 3rd and Rockets in 4th in a highly tight and competitive Western conference. Both teams have done a lot of maneuvering, whether it’s in free agency or on the trading block, to build their respective teams. Both teams are also viable candidates to represent the Western conference in the NBA Finals.

The more and more you try and look into the viability of superstar driven teams, the more inconclusive the evidence turns out to be. With the NBA being so much more superstar driven compared to the rest of the major team-sports, is it possible that our perception of a good player versus a great player is skewed? I believe there are simply so many aspects of basketball that we tend to over-look. Defense, rebounding, movement without the ball, and court awareness are just a few commonly over-looked qualities in a player. Also, a player that makes everyone else better is something that’s impossible to represent with numbers or even predict if it will translate to a different team. Simply plugging in numerous players that perform well on paper will never be the secrete formula for success. Some stars mesh with other stars, while others cause their teams to regress. It’s the ultimate conundrum. Building a championship team is not an east task, so it’s impossible to say there’s a right or wrong way to do it. At the end of the day, trying to find that secrete formula is just silly. Teams prevail in different ways, sometimes being impossible to predict. As fans we just have to sit back and enjoy the show.