13 Games Left for the Mavericks, Are they Playoff Bound or Going Fishing?
By Jonathan Underhill
First off, thanks for checking out the new and improved blog for Nosebleed Seats Sports Talk Radio. Myself and my co-host, Zach Wolchuk, will be posting on here regularly now so our listeners can keep up with our on-air topics and whatever else we feel like writing. I know Big Z already said he wants to start doing some player profiles of NFL prospects. I'm looking forward to baseball season to get under way and can't wait to discuss America's pastime. But anyway, now that's out of the way lets dive right in.
Lets first take a quick look at the Western Conference. The Mavs are sitting in the 8th seed right now after a tough overtime loss to the Timberwolves last night. The Mavs are now 41-28 with 13 games remaining in their season. Phoenix is 1.5 games behind them and Minnesota, who I had as a playoff team early in the year, is 5.5 behind. In front of Dallas is Memphis (40-27) with the 7th seed, Golden State (43-26) with the 6th seed, and Portland (44-24) holding down the 5th spot. At the top of the conference is San Antonio, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers, and Houston, in that order. Realistically at this juncture I do not see Minnesota squeezing their way in, but Phoenix is definitely still in the picture. The Mavericks and Suns actually meet on April 12th and then the Grizzlies on April 16th, both of which could be a deciding games.
In the past few weeks we have seen some glimmers of hope. Beating the Blazers followed by the Pacers. They were then destroyed in an embarrassing loss to the Warriors but played well behind 31 points from Nowitzki the next night against the Jazz. The Thunder were than handed a solid defeat at home right before Dallas started an unheard of 8-game home stand at the beginning of this week. A home stand that long, this late in the season, seems to be a gift from god. The Mavs beat the Celtics to start it off in a game a little closer than I'd like see. Last night was the Timberwolves, who have given us problems all season. Trailing most of the game the Mavs sparked a come back in the 4th quarter behind an incredibly hot shooting hand of Monta Ellis. In over time unfortunately, the Timberwolves ended up winning by one point.
Looking forward at the last 13 games there is some tough games including three match ups against the Clippers and two versus the Warriors. Nine of the final 13 will be against teams with winning records. The Mavs must, and I repeat MUST, take advantage of the rest of this home stand. Phoenix has a little easier of a schedule but not by much. In their final 14 games they face 8 teams above .500 but they close out the season on a tough stretch. The Clippers, Spurs, Blazers, Thunder, Mavs, and Grizzlies are six of their final eight opponents. Memphis' final 15 games include 11 teams over .500. These three teams, who most people believe are fighting for the final two spots, all close out their season playing each other in their last two games. Those games could ultimately be the deciding factor on who's in and who's out.
With all that being said, I do like what I've been seeing out of Dallas recently. They have been playing tough teams well and haven't been needing to rely on Dirk to win games. Offensively they can be unstoppable at times, with so many scorers it doesn't necessarily kill you if one or two guys are cold. Monta has matured throughout the season and can take over games at times. Shawn Marion is actually taking shots, and making them, this year when in the past he has relied exclusively on put-backs, post-ups, and lay-ups. Vince Carter continues at his age to score and is great off the bench. Jose Calderon continues to snipe from three point range. Brandan Wright can be a game changer with his athleticism and freaky high vertical. And Dirk is just doing his thing as usual. Down the stretch, and hopefully in the playoffs, I believe a major X-factor will be Devin Harris. He has been playing incredibly since coming back from injury. He can play either guard position and has the ability to spark the team of the bench with his explosive speed. He has also been closing out a lot of games because he's the teams best defensive guard as well.
The problem isn't offense though, it's defense. If Dallas was even a middle of the pack defensive team there might be championship murmurs. Hopefully Rick Carlisle can work some magic and get this team to kick it up a gear on that end of the floor. If not it will ultimately be their downfall.
Dallas has the ability to not just make the playoffs but do some damage. A seven seed with a potential match-up against the Thunder could be on upset alert considering how well we match up with them. And I won't put anything magical past Dirk, he's done it before. Maybe it's the optimistic fan in me speaking but I truly believe the Mavericks have been flying under the radar all season with how well they've been playing.
...But I'm getting ahead of myself. Lets worry about making the playoffs first.
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